丁磊,缴健,杨啸宇,曾明,王逸飞.上游水库群运行对长江口淡水资源的影响及未来趋势分析[J].海洋工程,2022,40(2):130~142
上游水库群运行对长江口淡水资源的影响及未来趋势分析
Analysis on the influence of upstream reservoir group operation on freshwater resources in the estuary of the Yangtze River and future trend
投稿时间:2021-10-10  
DOI:10.16483/j.issn.1005-9865.2022.02.013
中文关键词:  长江口  盐水入侵  长江上游水库群  入海流量  水源地  淡水资源
英文关键词:the Yangtze River estuary  saltwater intrusion  reservoir group in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River  sea inflow  water source  freshwater resources
基金项目:三峡后续工作项目(126302001000200002);国家自然科学基金项目(51979172);河口海岸保护与治理创新团队(Y220013);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(Y220006)
作者单位
丁磊 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029 
缴健 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029 
杨啸宇 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029 
曾明 长江水利委员会水文局, 湖北 武汉 430010 
王逸飞 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029 
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中文摘要:
      上海市饮用水主要来自长江口的3大水源地——陈行水库、青草沙水库和东风西沙水库,盐水入侵是长江口淡水资源利用的重要威胁。随着以三峡工程为代表的长江上游水库群的建成和运行,入海流量发生变化。在分析及预测长江入海流量的基础上,通过长江口实测盐度数据及数学模型,以淡水资源面积占比、水源地取水口平均盐度为指标,对长江口盐水入侵受上游水库群运行的影响开展研究,并对未来变化趋势进行分析。研究结果表明:三峡蓄水后入海流量小于15 000 m3/s的频率明显减少,而小于10 000 m3/s的极低流量几乎不再发生。未来10 a枯季入海流量较现在大体仍为增加趋势,尤其是12月平均流量增量可达2 400 m3/s。三峡工程的运行并未使得长江口盐度时空分布特征发生根本性变化,但盐度场会有一定改变。在三峡水库蓄水的影响下,除11月外其他枯季月份南支、南港、北港淡水资源面积均有增大,南支1、2月增量超过南支面积的40%,南北港则在3月增量最为明显;在11月水源地取水口盐度约有0.05‰的升高,其他月份均为下降,1月变化最为明显,3大水源地取水口盐度下降0.4‰~0.5‰。在未来10 a中,12月盐水入侵与现状相比将会有进一步减弱,水源地取水口盐度进一步下降0.2‰左右。研究可为未来长江口水源地运行提供参考和依据。
英文摘要:
      The potable water for Shanghai mainly comes from three water sources in the Yangtze River estuary: Chenhang Reservoir, Qingcaosha Reservoir and Dongfengxisha Reservoir. Saltwater intrusion is an important threat to the utilization of freshwater resources in the Yangtze estuary. Sea inflow changes with the building and operation of the reservoir group represented by the Three Gorges Project in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Based on the analysis and prediction of the inflow of the Yangtze River into the sea, measured salinity data and mathematical model, and taking the area ratio of freshwater resources and average salinity of water intake as indexes, researches on the influence of reservoir group operation on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and its future trend were carried out. Research result shows that the frequency of sea inflow of less than 15 000 m3/s decreases significantly after the Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment. Sea inflow of less than 10 000 m3/s hardly happens. Sea inflow in dry seasons is still generally increasing in the future 10 a. Especially average flow increment can be 2 400 m3/s in December. The operation of the Three Gorges Project makes no fundamental changes in spatial and temporal distribution of salinity in the Yangtze estuary, except for the salinity field. The freshwater resources areas in the South Branch, South and North Channels increase in other dry season months except November. South Branch increases by more than 40 percent in January and February. South and North Channels increase most obviously in March. The salinity of water intake increases by about 0.05‰ in November and decreases in other months. Intakes in three water sources decrease by 0.4‰~0.5‰ in January. The salt intrusion in December will be further weakened compared with the current situation, and the salinity of the water intake will be further reduced by about 0.2‰ in the future 10 a. This study can provide reference and basis for the future operation of water sources in the Yangtze River estuary.
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