张洲,夏冉,郑利军,马国印,张玉.基于多阶段贝叶斯网络法的脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性分析[J].海洋工程,2021,39(4):124~133
基于多阶段贝叶斯网络法的脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性分析
Reliability analysis of umbilical in full lifecycle based on phase mission system Bayesian network method
投稿时间:2020-05-26  
DOI:10.16483/j.issn.1005-9865.2021.04.014
中文关键词:  脐带缆  全寿命  贝叶斯网络  可靠性分析  深海油气  水下生产系统
英文关键词:umbilical  full lifecycle  Bayesian networks  reliability analysis  deep sea oil and gas  underwter production system
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0307201)
作者单位E-mail
张洲 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院, 北京 102200 752518395@qq.com 
夏冉 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院, 北京 102200  
郑利军 中海油研究总院, 北京 100027  
马国印 海洋石油工程股份有限公司, 天津 300450  
张玉 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院, 北京 102200 zhangyu@cup.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      脐带缆是深海油气开发的关键设备之一,主要由钢管单元、电缆单元、光缆单元、护套及铠装单元组成。脐带缆在全寿命周期经过设计制造、储存、安装、在位运行、修复阶段,其每个阶段的可靠性并不是某个常数,而是随时间变化的函数,因此有必要对脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性的变化进行分析。建立某气田水下脐带缆在储存、安装、在位运行阶段的故障树模型,将其转化为多阶段贝叶斯网络模型进行建模分析,基于OREDA手册数据,假设部件寿命服从指数分布,对脐带缆存储、安装、在位运行阶段的可靠性进行分析,得到不同阶段脐带缆可靠性的变化曲线,并与可靠性框图方法进行对比分析。同时,通过引入条件可靠性对该方法进行了优化,分析脐带缆修复后的可靠性变化,以及对脐带缆关键部件进行重要度分析,针对薄弱环节提出改进措施。可靠性分析可为水下脐带缆的安全运行提供技术支持,同时也为海洋结构与设备的全寿命周期可靠性分析提供了一种方法参考。
英文摘要:
      Umbilical is one of the key facilities of the exploitation of subsea oil and gas, and serves as the “nerve lifeline” in subsea production system. The umbilical will go through the stages of design, manufacture, storage, installation, in-service, and repair during its full lifecycle. In fact, the reliability of umbilical in each stage is not a constant, but a function of time. It is necessary to analyze the variation of the umbilical reliability during its full lifecycle. In this paper, a Fault Tree Analysis model of umbilical in a gas field is established during the storage, installation and in-service stage, and it is transformed into Phase Mission System Bayesian Network model. Using the OREDA data, the reliability of umbilical is analyzed, and the reliability curves with time at different stages are obtained, with comparing with the results of Reliability Block Diagram. Moreover, the reliability of the repaired umbilical is analyzed using the condition reliability method, and the importance degrees of the key units of umbilical are analyzed, to propose improving measures for the weak parts. This paper will provide technical support for the safe operation of umbilical, and will also provide a feasible method for the reliability analysis of ocean engineering and structures during their full lifecycle.
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